The Fall of the Roman Empire and the “Barbarian” Problem
The Roman Empire, one of history’s greatest states, fell to “barbarians” in the fifth century CE. While it wasn’t meant to be eternal, there were ways to sustain it. To endure in a zero-sum game, you need to constantly add value. If the Romans had gone above and beyond to “Romanize” the barbarians, history might have been different. This isn’t about counterfactual history, but it’s a lesson we can apply to a similar problem Turkey faces.
Turkey’s “Barbarians at the Gate” Perception and Identity
The phrase “barbarians at the gate” summarizes Turkey’s complex situation, especially regarding its eastern borders. While Turkey isn’t an empire, Roman history might offer a solution. The barbarian advance is more sociological than militaristic. If you can “Turkify” the barbarians, you won’t have much of a problem. This is fundamentally an identity issue; all hostilities stem from “us versus them” narratives. Therefore, for a shared purpose, you need to tolerate your own internal differences and show tolerance towards people within your group.
Lessons from Rome’s Decline
The Roman Empire, which survived for a thousand years in the West and another thousand in the East, eventually fell to “barbarians.” What mechanisms could have sustained it in the face of constantly changing global realities? Rome ultimately succumbed to the illusion of theories and the wishful thinking of societies. If Rome had invested more effort in developing and mediating among the barbarian lands, it might have lasted another thousand years. While this is entirely counterfactual history, hypothetical scenarios can be used for educational purposes. Examining alternative history can yield important lessons for the future.
Aims, Ideals, and Information Management in Statecraft
History doesn’t contain absolute mistakes or errors; rather, actions are taken based on specific aims and ideals. We label certain situations as “mistakes” within the framework of our own aims and ideals. “Eternal states” like Rome or the Ottomans made mistakes by acting with the expectation that they truly would be eternal. Political organizations, as much as cultural structures, faced collapse. The lesson we learn from failed states is this: First, you must manage information before you manage politics, and second, if you are a political actor, you should do more than you normally would.
Cultural Integration: A New Perspective on Occupation and Hegemony
The Romans lacked sufficient information about the barbarians and their capabilities. You can’t achieve lasting success by simply destroying armed societies; you need more than that. Culturalization, leading them to identify with your own identity, could be a solution. This offers a different perspective on occupation and hegemony: You invade and create people from your own identity; if you can’t invade, you make them like yourself in other ways. The first step in such cultural integration is education beyond borders.
Turkey’s Potential to “Turkify the Barbarians”
The Turkish state can educate these people through online courses, TV shows, diploma programs, formal education, games, and other voluntary actions aimed at promoting itself. How can a Nigerian villager identify as a Manchester United football fan? These two have nothing in common except that Manchester United FC does its job well. When you succeed at what you do, it’s easier than you think.
Population and Opportunity: Turning Problems into Opportunities
As a state, Turkey can truly be the state of all these people. Look at how powerful China and India are, simply because of their populations. Furthermore, “barbarians” or immigrants aren’t just numbers; their crises can be transformed into opportunities. The Ottomans didn’t have the chance to conquer the world before utilizing the “barbarians” and populations spreading from the East. This is entirely a matter of perspective. Problems are, in fact, opportunities; we just need to change our point of view.
